Parture
12-05-2017, 02:09 PM
I have 12 reasons which agree with the COT data for shorting the CDN$
1. NAFTA negotiations not good for Canada
2. House pricing still dropping
3. Oil going below $50 (5 year average inventories still at the high)
4. Interest rate differential (spread) lower for Canada (Fed raising in Dec., Canada not)
5. Canada's GDP increase much lower than USA
6. Taxes in USA way better than Canada with the new bill (adding fuel to the fire requiring rates hiked sooner in US)
7. Fed unwinding balance sheet at a pace of $600 billion/year.
8. Canadian personal debt is the worst of any country in the world.
9. The futures still indicate expectations of a 40% in Jan and 30% in Dec Canada rate hike (which will have to come down to 0%)
10. The jobs data is really a lagging indicator plus unemployment numbers are fake anyway since they don't count people not looking.
11. Commodity prices are still bouncing along the bottom.
12. Mortgage rule changes will bring house prices down.
1. NAFTA negotiations not good for Canada
2. House pricing still dropping
3. Oil going below $50 (5 year average inventories still at the high)
4. Interest rate differential (spread) lower for Canada (Fed raising in Dec., Canada not)
5. Canada's GDP increase much lower than USA
6. Taxes in USA way better than Canada with the new bill (adding fuel to the fire requiring rates hiked sooner in US)
7. Fed unwinding balance sheet at a pace of $600 billion/year.
8. Canadian personal debt is the worst of any country in the world.
9. The futures still indicate expectations of a 40% in Jan and 30% in Dec Canada rate hike (which will have to come down to 0%)
10. The jobs data is really a lagging indicator plus unemployment numbers are fake anyway since they don't count people not looking.
11. Commodity prices are still bouncing along the bottom.
12. Mortgage rule changes will bring house prices down.