spiritualman
04-26-2015, 10:32 PM
If 2015 to 2022 is the 7 years of plenty then how can the S&P 500 or DJIA drop 50%? or drop 7% on Sept. 13, 2015 Elul 29?
Therefore, I propose what sustains this 7 years of plenty and props up the markets for another 7 years is the slow deterioration of the US Dollar Index from a high of about 112 on its way down below 70. This sustains exports and helps create inflation to pay down debts.
Biblically that's how I make it fit.
This goes counter to my way of thinking because 2009 to 2015 already has seen a great bull market run, and we are already seeing new highs in asset allocation into equities, market cap to GDP, Q Ratio, CAPE 10 Year Case Shiller, Margin Debt to GDP, Profit margins to GDP, etc.
So what will win out? I propose no major drop is coming as the markets will hover in expensive territory for the next 7 years, not like the 70's with occasional big drops, but a slow hovering with no big dips. The reason for this is because the Fed Funds rate is going to stay at 0% forever!
The only thing that could change my mind for a big drop of 30-50% is if reported earnings drop from $100 down below $80 then I will short everything I got. The delusional markets won't be able to stay up below $80 reported earnings. Baby boomers are gambling again! They decide where the markets go.
Therefore, I propose what sustains this 7 years of plenty and props up the markets for another 7 years is the slow deterioration of the US Dollar Index from a high of about 112 on its way down below 70. This sustains exports and helps create inflation to pay down debts.
Biblically that's how I make it fit.
This goes counter to my way of thinking because 2009 to 2015 already has seen a great bull market run, and we are already seeing new highs in asset allocation into equities, market cap to GDP, Q Ratio, CAPE 10 Year Case Shiller, Margin Debt to GDP, Profit margins to GDP, etc.
So what will win out? I propose no major drop is coming as the markets will hover in expensive territory for the next 7 years, not like the 70's with occasional big drops, but a slow hovering with no big dips. The reason for this is because the Fed Funds rate is going to stay at 0% forever!
The only thing that could change my mind for a big drop of 30-50% is if reported earnings drop from $100 down below $80 then I will short everything I got. The delusional markets won't be able to stay up below $80 reported earnings. Baby boomers are gambling again! They decide where the markets go.