Mark
01-22-2015, 12:21 PM
One of my greatest pleasures in life will be watching Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James seeing his prediction fail miserably, and of course, not giving Raymond James any of your money for this outrageous call that Jeffrey made on Financialsense.com with Jim Puplava on Jan. 21, 2015. Jim pretty much was in agreement with Jeffrey.
Jim is funny, because he disregards the asset allocation in stocks at all time highs due to stocks going up. Yet that is how maximum allocation in stocks always occurs at market tops by stocks going up in addition to contributions.
Saut says the S&P 500 will be 4200 by the year 2021.
His reasoning? Because the CAPE was so high, it would not have you invest in the market the past 6 years so that is why we should disregard it and stay long. According to him in the next 7 years the S&P 500 will more than double from 2000 to 4200.
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
My prediction is that the S&P 500 will have a pretty good run, but top out the middle of 2016, no later, at 2500 tops. And then it will precede to collapse below 1000 in 2017 to 2019 due to falling house prices, a way overvalued US Dollar Index, and other leveraged debt burdened derivative implosions.
I predict the earnings on the S&P 500 will collapse down below $80 so at a P/E of 12 that's 80 x 12 = 960. In a couple years the Book Value on the S&P 500 will be 800 so 1.2 x 800 = 960.
Why am I so confident in this? Because never has a bear market lasted just 8 years from 2000 to 2008. They usually last 17 to 25 years.
Jim is funny, because he disregards the asset allocation in stocks at all time highs due to stocks going up. Yet that is how maximum allocation in stocks always occurs at market tops by stocks going up in addition to contributions.
Saut says the S&P 500 will be 4200 by the year 2021.
His reasoning? Because the CAPE was so high, it would not have you invest in the market the past 6 years so that is why we should disregard it and stay long. According to him in the next 7 years the S&P 500 will more than double from 2000 to 4200.
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
My prediction is that the S&P 500 will have a pretty good run, but top out the middle of 2016, no later, at 2500 tops. And then it will precede to collapse below 1000 in 2017 to 2019 due to falling house prices, a way overvalued US Dollar Index, and other leveraged debt burdened derivative implosions.
I predict the earnings on the S&P 500 will collapse down below $80 so at a P/E of 12 that's 80 x 12 = 960. In a couple years the Book Value on the S&P 500 will be 800 so 1.2 x 800 = 960.
Why am I so confident in this? Because never has a bear market lasted just 8 years from 2000 to 2008. They usually last 17 to 25 years.