Warren Buffet,

Warren, what do you think of this idea?

Re: Lithium

It's amazing after watching all the videos from the investorintel.com conference recently, and listening to very intelligent comments from really bright people in the crowd, it is still very challenging to know what to do. But these two points stand out.

1) As time goes on the ratio of cobalt drops from 6-3-2 to 8-1-1; that is, the cobalt portion drops from 3 to 1 and it has substitutes. So I am afraid of being bullish cobalt stocks. And massive supplies are available whether unused devices in homes or above ground deposits mentioned. Cobalt is easily replaced; lithium is not. The portion of graphene for EV batteries is only a small portion of overall demand for graphene; whereas the portion of Lithium used for EV's is massive to the current usage of Lithium.

2) I am most intrigued with Neo Lithium and Lithium X (their representatives were at on the panel). The way I run the numbers is exceedingly simple but indulge me. LIX is very close to 3 million tonnes of lithium carbonate, and NLC is approaching the same the more they assess their property. So here is what I do....

Let's say the average LCE price is $30,000 over the long run and it costs only $3000 per tonne to evaporate in the pond. That's a $27,000 profit. 3 million tonnes x 27,000/t = 81 billion. At an 8% discount rate over 20 years divide 81 billion by 20 to get $4.05 billion/year in profits, which gives us a net present value of 4.05 billion / 93,000,000 shares = $428 / share.

The current stock price should be $428 not $2. I know this is extreme, but it is to make the point that however you run the numbers, $2 is an insanely cheap price and would make Warren Buffet salivate if he knew. It is easily assumed over those 20 years that LIX will find other great deposits so there is no worry of their asset depleting.

I am sure you would agree, therefore, LIX, NLC and even AAL are at least 10 baggers and probably 20 baggers from current prices. Who knows? They could be 100 baggers. Their price to book values are ridiculously undervalued. LIX is 2.6x, NLC is 2x, AAL is under 1x. Cheap! LIX and NLC have tailing ponds already. It takes 8 to 12 months for the evaporation to take place.

Let me know what you think. What am I missing?