Palladium is About to Take a Nose Dive in Price

Of all the commodities Palladium looks the most interesting to short. I think the CRB is collapsing to yet another all time new low.

While diesel is in decline in Europe (thus, using less Platinum and more Palladium), diesel is on the increase in USA; but it is not like diesel vehicles are going away overnight. It is still cheaper and people will buy diesel if they can. And apparently diesel manufacturers are doing things to reduce emissions.

Recycling of Palladium is about 50% of actual production so this is a big deal.

Of course, electric cars are slowly getting rid of demand for catalytic converters. The exponential pace of this happening will shock everyone.

I read Toyota invented a new catalytic converter that uses 20% less Palladium and 20% less volume. You can be sure the rest of the industry will be going this way also. 18 wheelers still need to use diesel.

Vehicle sales are declining in the 3 largest markets: USA, China and Europe. We might be surprised how quickly we change from a Palladium deficit of 800,000 ounces to a surplus.

Philippines apparently ha the largest Palladium mine in the world now newly discovered.

In 2011/12 the deficit of Palladium was 1.1 million ounces and the high reached for the Palladium price was 900. In 2014 the shortage was 1.8 million ounces and again the price of Palladium went to about 900. Today we are nowhere near that. Today we went to a price of 900 with a deficit of only 800,000 ounces. We must be near a top in price then.

The commercials are really short so this is as good a time as any to short Palladium.

What is most important I feel is going back 40 years is each new higher low was only marginally higher by only about 30%. Look where we are now. In 2009 we hit a low of 164 and in 2014 we hit a low of 480. That's a 200% increase. Even 400 is a 150% increase and 300 is an 80% increase from that 164 low in 2009. So I believe Palladium at a bare minimum will cross $400 and could easily get down to 300 or lower.

The year 2000 was unlike today, for the high of 1100 was due to political moves by Russia and Ford lost a billion dollars hoarding Palladium.