Predictions for 2015

It is hard for me to believe crude oil has bottomed out at $54 when there is still no sign of Saudis cutting production or anyone else for that matter. When it bottomed in the past it was at $10, $25, $30 and $40. And production is really going full tilt this time so we should get into the low 40s if not the 30s. I expect sugar to bottom out around $8. It is currently $14. Silver should bottom out around $9. Gold will bottom out between $500 and $700. Natural gas should plummet to close to $2. The Dollar Index is the great deception. It might top out in the high 90s or low 100s so more patient is needed since it is 90 right now. The S&P 500 is going to top out no higher than 2500 sometime this year then that will be the final top before we head down to 1000. It drops because house prices drop again. With book value staying under 800, price/book goes to 1.2x, reported earnings dropp to $80, and the p/e drops to 12x so that is under 1000. Many good trading opportunities. Take whichever comes first. We are in what is called a K-winter cycle of deflation. In fact, everything should collapse to astonishing levels so all the numbers I have given in theory need to be revised down even further which is even hard for me to believe. All the money printing just makes the deflationary effects even worse and paying the piper.

What do you think of the dramatic gas price drop that is now steadily going up again? We were well under $2.00/gallon a month ago and now we're nearing $3.00 again.

Production is still increasing. Every major drop was never straight down so this run-up lately will be short lived. 1600 natural gas rigs in 2008, now 300, and production is still higher. 1600 oil rigs last year, now 1000, and production is still increasing. It seems like a no brainer. I was going to go long oil at $40, but now I can't go long until $35 for the 9 month contract which means the near term contract must hit about $28.